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Transcript

Eli ±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýGood morning, all, and thanks for stopping by this week's Mizzou chat. The Tigers are in the home stretch of fall camp, and two weeks from today, it's gameday. How the time flies! I'll be around for the next couple of hours to answer your questions and hear out your takes, so let 'em rip!

Senior scramble: My biggest concern for Mizzou football is the offensive line. Most important group and Mizzou is playing musical chairs. Running the ball against the defensive teams in the SEC is very hard when your offensive line isn't set it becomes harder. Can out QB get enough time to throw. Our defense better be as good as advertised I just don't see a good Sec offense I hope I am wrong but I think 8 wins is the ceiling. Thanks for the chat.

Hoff: The offensive line does seem to be the red flag right now. In case anyone's missed it, you ought to read this for a catch-up on what the shifts to the line we've seen in practice this week might mean for the Tigers. Given that the program previously said Cayden Green would only play left tackle in an "emergency situation" and he's been out there at LT this week, it's hard to paint it as a good thing. 

Could it work? Absolutely. Green's probably still a good to even great left tackle. Dominick Giudice is still probably a good left guard. The hope is that Tristan Wilson or Curtis Peagler are then able to be serviceable at right guard. But it is, as you mention, a game of musical chairs. Where will the weak point be? Ideally for any football team, not at left tackle, right? But it's hard to feel good going into a season when you definitely are going to have a weak point somewhere along the O-line, too. (And maybe that's not the case for Mizzou — I just haven't seen as much from Wilson/Peagler to tell you either is SEC starter level.) 

No groundbreaking analysis here, but the O-line dictates everything for an offense. Mizzou was going to prioritize quarterback mobility anyway, but maybe that becomes more important with a dicier situation along the line (which favors Pribula over Horn, by the way). It matters for the running game, too, obviously. So sure, the offensive line being less stable than expected is the sort of thing that lowers both the floor and the ceiling for a program.

Still, I'd argue it affects the floor more than the ceiling. If Mizzou has to play in-season musical chairs along the line, or these moves flat-out don't work, it's easier to see how a 6-6 season happens. I still think the ceiling is around the same level, mostly because it's the best case scenario and the schedule is still the schedule. The floor-level outcome is the O-line never coming together and one (or more) spots becoming cracks in the armor. The ceiling-level outcome is the Tigers finding a starting five that pushes like the best in the SEC. Maybe it's less likely now that they find that, but that's still the ceiling. And that's higher than eight wins.

Tom O: Do you plan to write any articles on Missouri players who left the team via the portal. It would be interesting to see how Nebraska and Ole Miss uses our former defensive end Nwanie ?and running back Lacy.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYes, absolutely. I believe I've done one of these the last couple of years, or certainly last season, anyway. I'll write a blurb or so on each player who's left, where they are and what their projected role is. I don't know exactly when it'll run, but I'd say around this time next week — once Mizzou has ended fall camp but before the game-week cycle begins. 

²Ï³Ü±ð²õ³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô²õ:ÌýI know you're probably full up with football, but you have any snippets on how things are going in practice for either men's or women's BB?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýUnfortunately, I don't. Both teams are on a break right now before the semester starts so that players (and coaches) can have a little down time at home before kicking into preseason gear. I didn't get a chance to catch a basketball practice this summer — that happened last year but not this time around. I haven't heard anything alarming out of either program, though, which is not nothing. 

Matt L: Are the odds better than 50-50 that Drink names a starting QB before opening night? (I know someone has to take the first snap in a couple of weeks. I mean long term.)

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI'm giving you "question of the day" honors for this one because it's the biggest question (besides the O-line stuff) in my mind these days. At the start of camp, I think it was more likely than not that Drinkwitz would have a starter before the opener. It was never impossible that the competition would still be going against Central Arkansas — he made very clear he'd let that happen if needed — but it felt like the best case scenario was someone winning the job in camp. As every day without an announced starter goes by, even with the notion that Pribula is/has been in the lead, the chances of Drinkwitz naming QB1 before the opener go down.

The question, then: When is the point in time where the odds flip and it becomes more likely that Horn and Pribula are competing against UCA? I feel like that's this week. Saturday was the final scrimmage of camp, and neither won the job then. Fall camp ends Tuesday, and then it's more of a regular game-week routine. I don't see why Drinkwitz would name a starter during game prep.

So really, next Tuesday, when Drinkwitz will hold his camp-concluding presser is the "deadline" in my eyes for a preseason decision to happen. If not then, then it's almost certainly bleeding into the season. Given the lack of obvious opportunities for a starter to pull away at this point — team is off today and in ¹û½´ÊÓƵ this weekend for the mock road game walkthrough — I'm inclined to think we're now more likely to see a competition against Central Arkansas than a starter named beforehand. Not impossible a decision comes first, but that's my reading of the timing and tea leaves. 

Matt L: PSA: Kurt Warner’s son has been named the starting QB at Fresno State and will be leading the Bulldogs into Lawrence next week to beat the Jayhawks. All former Rams fans and true sons and daughters should be buying tickets to wear black and gold to cheer on Kurt’s son and another humiliating defeat for Kansas as they open their renovated stadium. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýKU vs. Fresno State, Week Zero: Kicks off at 5:30 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 23. Televised nationally on Fox. Or your approach of showing up in Lawrence. 

°ä²¹°ù»å¾±²¹³¦°ä²¹°ù»å²õ:Ìýthanks as always for the chat! My question is about basketball recruiting. Is Scottie Adkinson the biggest in-state recruit of the past decade? Techincally not counting MPJ since he had moved out west.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýYes, and if you're taking Michael Porter Jr. out of the equation, Adkinson is the best in-state recruit ever. (Of course, recruiting rankings only go back so far.) In 247Sports' all-time recruits ranking, MPJ is 1, Jason Crowe Jr. is 2, Linas Keliza is 3, Tony Mitchell is 4 and Adkinson is 5. 

²Ñ¾±³ú³ú´Ç³Ü¹ó²¹²Ô:Ìýhiw do you think Mizzou s defense stacks up in the SEC?

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýWith the obligatory "I haven't seen other SEC defenses this year" disclaimer, I think quite well. Maybe even top 4-5 if everything goes right. The defensive end and linebacker groups ought to be up there with the best in the league. Safety and defensive tackle should be better than even the last couple of years. Cornerback is a question mark, but Mizzou's hoping that natural improvement will come about from returning every snap there. Put that all together and that should be close to or within the top 10 in the country and top half of the SEC, maybe even top third. 

°Õ²¹³ó²¹°ù³Ù27:ÌýGood day to you Eli and hope all is well your way. Sorry to harp on the schedule, but I just absolutely hate the 6 home games in a row to start the season. Everything you said last week about the negatives regarding it are true. You can also take in the possible hot weather potential for all these home games in Sept, it makes us have to play 4 out of our last 6 on the road, denies us an opportunity for more beautiful fall-football weather games by playing 4 of the last 6 on the road; as you pointed out, Mizzou clearly was not ready for that first road game at A&M last year after starting the season with all those home games...come on man, a "road environment " thing at Lindenwood to help them prepare for road games down the line?!? Yeah I don't see that helping. Also, I recall this. In 2019 Odom's last season in 2019...yes started out with a road game in that embarrassing loss at Wyoming, but then MU played 5 in a row at home, won all those, and went on to get pummeled in all all their SEC road games after that. My question would be who would be responsible for foolishly setting us up with this over-frontloaded home schedule? The AD? And/or does the SEC itself play a part in setting up our schedule?

Hoff: I sometimes wonder if we're actually not talking about the weirdness of this schedule enough. Of course, the QB competition and now O-line business are more important, so maybe it's more that this would be a big deal in a year without those things to consider. I've wondered about the I-70 fatigue for those of y'all who live in the ¹û½´ÊÓƵ area and come to games (or for people from the KC side, too.) I don't mind the home stretch because it takes me 10 minutes max to get from my garage to the parking ramp assigned to media for home games. But six drives over from STL in seven weeks would be more taxing. Maybe I'm off base in thinking like that.

I'm not going to tell you the Lindenwood mock road game is going to ensure Mizzou drops three touchdowns on Auburn in the first quarter of that game two months from now, but I don't see how it hurts. That exercise, as you'll read when the story I've just finished goes live later today or tomorrow morning, is more about the logistics and expectations. I do think there's something to that. 

I hadn't thought of the '19 season parallel. That's an interesting one. I do think there was a lot that was unique about that start to the season, mostly with the opener being at Wyoming and going south. (Side note: That was my freshman year at MU. A whole group of us went to the Heidelberg, all excited to watch a game as actual Mizzou students. What a time we were in for...)

As far as who's responsible: It's part athletic department, part SEC. Mizzou scheduled its noncon games for when it did, so it was always going to be a home-heavy start. (Like with last year, when it was three home noncons to open the season. Same in 2023.) That locked Mizzou into being at home Weeks 1, 2, 3 and 5 (Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, UMass). From there, it was in the hands of the SEC.

And the league decided to have Mizzou at home in Week 4, off Week 6 and home again Week 7. Why? I don't know. But that's what the conference did. Scheduling isn't exactly the type of process media get to see the nuts and bolts of. 

Sec. 125, Row 9, Seats 1-2: Don't you think this QB "competition" is much ado about nothing? Pribula is/was always going to be the guy, they did not bring him in here get him the NIL money etc to be the backup QB. I think Drink likes to push his guy and I think Beau has always been the guy. What say you Eli? Also who will be the starting punter this year? I have not seen a punting question yet this year so I would like to be the first. Since the OL is a potential issue, it seems punting and subsequent field position will be Mizzou's game.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýTo your first question: I don't buy that at all. Pribula is and has been the favorite. I continue to think he'll be the starter and grow in confidence of that. But that's not to say it hasn't been a legit competition. If Sam Horn is/has been the better option, he would absolutely be the starter. Drinkwitz will play the quarterback who gives him the best chance to win.

There are a couple things here that I think are important to refute. Maybe the money part becomes a factor if this is somehow a true 50-50 dead heat (which it isn't/won't be). Even then, it's not like Sam Horn is doing this just for a scholarship. He's getting paid too, and probably pretty decently, otherwise why wouldn't he have gone all in on baseball to sign a more lucrative contract there? 

Second, I think we as people have a tendency to look at an outcome and assume it was always going to be the way that thing went, thereby ignoring the process and underlying variables. This feels different from the 2023 competition, even if there are aspects that look similar. Just because the favorite wins doesn't mean others didn't have a shot. Does Drinkwitz like to push his quarterbacks? Yes, and for good reason. Part of that is trying to get the best possible quarterback, whether that's a Pribula who took the offseason/preseason more seriously because he was in a competition or somebody who rose to a level to beat him out.

On punter: It'll be Stanford transfer Connor Weselman, and I've got a story on him coming this weekend. It's interesting because the last time he punted in a game was... a 14-yard punt in Week 9 of the 2023 season. Yes, 2023. That said, I asked Drinkwitz on Saturday how the punting's been and he had good things to say. He's not been one to sugarcoat camp punting previously. It abolustely could be a factor this season. 

Mizzou Fan - Dallas: Eli - Can you give us an update on our field goal kicker? Is there competition? Thank You - Mizzou Fan Dallas

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýA string of special teams questions! That's how I know we're deep into camp.

Blake Craig will be back as the kicker. There has not been a competition but there is a clear understanding that he needs to be better, especially in that 40-49 yard range. (Is that more important than having the leg to make a 56-yarder? I'd lean yes.) 

We don't see a ton of kicking during camp, so I don't track stats, but it's looked normal. He did doink a 40-some yarder (couldn't see the exact yard line but I think it was about a 42-yard try) during the Saturday scrimmage in a end-of-game tempo drill, but that's one kick and not a perfect representation of his preseason.

¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýIs the reason why simply because Mizzou is an afterthought to the powers that be in the SEC? The SEC never really wanted Mizzou, but the timing was right, and they've never shown any interest in promoting the school or the football program. In fact, they seemed irritated when Pinkel won back-to-back East titles. To put it another way, would Alabama or Georgia ever have such a ridiculous schedule that puts them on the road so much for the home stretch when the stakes grow so high? Never.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýI never really know what to say on some of these "Mizzou's fit in the SEC questions." Of course nobody from the conference is going to say that's the case. It's a feel thing. There are other schools that got handed tough schedule draws in other ways. Oklahoma plays No. 1 Texas in Dallas, at No. 13 South Carolina, home against No. 21 Ole Miss, at No. 24 Tennessee then at No. 8 Alabama in a span of six weeks. That's no fun either. Florida's schedule has its tough moments too. And if the SEC hates Missouri, then why did it give the school the easiest set of opponents of any team in the league?

I'm not saying Mizzou has received the warmest welcome from other SEC schools/fanbases over the last 13 years. But this feels to me like one of those things that can be spun into "woe is us" or put in context of not everybody in this league getting what they want. 

¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýIn terms of the QB situation, the thing that worries me about your feeling the Pribula is the favorite is that if you look at the elite teams, their QB's are accomplished passers, and passers first, even if they are mobile. What killed Penn St? Allar was awful. Alabama--Millroe just wasn't a good enough passer. And, as we saw with Cook, baking so much QB running into the offense if going to take a toll on the QB's health. So, if Horn is showing a command of the offense and good decision making, I really wish he would be the guy. But you have me believing I'm hoping against hope.

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýThe key there is whether Horn really shows a command of the offense and good decision-making. I wouldn't say those were bad during Saturday's scrimmage, but Pribula had the advantage there. Pribula has perfect in the red zone and so smooth in tempo. Horn wasn't either of those. I understand the appeal of Horn's potential and his arm, but especially if the O-line isn't what it was thought to be, escapability and the right feel/understanding to improvise are what become even more important. It's why I've wondered where in the SEC quarterback hierarchy Pribula (assuming he wins the job) can and needs to land for Mizzou to be successful. Can he be a top-half SEC QB? Is top 10 or 11 good enough? That's a relevant context to the QB battle as well.

¶Ù°ä³Ò:ÌýWell, you're never going to convince paranoid Mizzou fans like me that the SEC cares about Mizzou. I think the annual SOS within the league is always going to be flukey. In a different year, OK and AL could be both top 5 teams, and then suddenly you're playing something like #'s 2, 4, 13, 18, which would be fairly brutal. But always understand, your audience is a tortured fanbase that has learned to expect the worst and see unfairness at every turn. (Although, until your recent articles about the O-line, I was weirdly optimistic about this season.)

±á´Ç´Ú´Ú:ÌýOh, I've definitely sensed that. And I understand the notion. I'm a Minnesota sports fan, which means I've been cursed with backing teams that shank field goals at the worst time or have owners who can't even sell a team properly. There are tortured sports fans all over the country. So I try to point out the legitmiately head-scratching things when I can, but also push back against a narrative that there's some anti-(insert team here) agenda too. Maybe it's just something that happens once sports become a career for people, but it's hard to make a living in sports and allow yourself to live on the emotional extremes.

And on that note, we'll call it a chat. See y'all back here next Thursday for more preseason talk!

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