Until citizens finally demand real reform, gerrymandering will remain a grimy reality of political life in America. But the fact that both parties engage in this cynical undermining of democracy shouldn鈥檛 provide cover for the Trump administration鈥檚 unprecedented efforts to skew next year鈥檚 midterm elections by pushing red states to suddenly reopen settled district lines, turning gerrymandering up to 11.
Texas lawmakers are currently in special session considering a rare mid-decade proposal to redraw congressional district lines that were drawn after the 2020 census, in an effort to carve out additional safe Republican seats before next year鈥檚 congressional elections. Outrageously, the effort was prompted by personal arm-twisting from President Donald Trump to state Republican leaders.
Now, Trump鈥檚 White House is similarly to convene in special session this summer to snatch away one of the state鈥檚 two remaining Democratic House seats. Missouri House Speaker Pro Tem Chad Perkins told the Missouri Independent last week that he received a call from White House staff pressing the case to redraw district lines that were drawn just three years ago so that Republicans will have strong positions in seven (instead of the current six) of the state鈥檚 eight congressional districts.
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That a president who tried to overthrow a valid presidential election in 2020 would now improperly try to stack the decks ahead of midterm elections that look ominous for his party is hardly a surprise. But it is something of a surprise 鈥 and an encouraging one 鈥 that top Missouri Republicans are so far resisting Trump鈥檚 pressure. For the sake of fair elections here and everywhere, they must continue resisting.
The states redraw their congressional districts based on census figures that come out every 10 years. The ideal is to adjust the district lines to shifting demographic trends so all the districts remain roughly equal in population. The political reality is that whichever party controls a given state almost invariably tries to game the process, carving out often bizarrely shaped district lines designed to give the ruling party maximum demographic advantage in future elections.
Both parties do it 鈥 just try to look at Illinois鈥 Democrat-drawn district map without getting dizzy, we dare you 鈥 but that bipartisan corruption generally operates within a valid schedule: The census comes out at the start of each decade (2010, 2020, etc.), the gerrymander shenanigans commence, a map is produced within a year or two, and the issue isn鈥檛 revisited until the next census.
What Trump is doing, pressing red states to revisit the post-2020-census mapping process that most of them have already put to bed 鈥 with the expressed goal of disenfranchising more Democratic voters so Republicans don鈥檛 lose their thin House majority 鈥 takes the shenanigans to a whole new level.
It bears mention that Missouri鈥檚 districts already are gerrymandered to give the GOP more seats than by rights it should have.
In last November鈥檚 election, the Republican presidential candidate won about 58% of the Missouri vote, compared to about 40% for the Democrat. In total votes cast among the state鈥檚 eight congressional races, the spread was similar: about 58% of the vote, on average, went to Republican congressional candidates, versus about 36% for Democratic candidates. (Third parties peeled off some Democratic support in congressional district races.)
So yes, Republican strength in Missouri is formidable 鈥 but not 7-1 formidable. Do the math: By either metric, eight congressional districts should produce an average at or close to 5-3 in Republicans鈥 favor.
The plan the White House is pushing (which hard-right Missouri Republicans tried and failed in 2022) would be to carve up Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver鈥檚 Kansas City-based Fifth District, leaving Republicans with a demographic advantage in seven of the state鈥檚 eight districts.
To be clear: The current 6-2 split already overrepresents actual Republican support statewide. Further boosting it to 7-1 just because they can is outright disenfranchisement. And not just for a majority of Kansas Citians but for the more than 1.2 million Missourians who pulled levers for Democrats generally last year.
According to the , Trump personally called Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to press him to revisit his state鈥檚 map. Even Abbott, a staunch Trump supporter, reportedly was reluctant to engage in such a blatantly improper abuse of the redistricting process before finally acquiescing to it.
Last we heard from Missouri leaders, the reluctance was still holding sway.
鈥淲e do redistricting every 10 years,鈥 Perkins, the Missouri House speaker pro tem, told the Missouri Independent, regarding the call he got from White House staff Friday. 鈥淲e鈥檝e already done that. To do it again would be out of character with the way Missouri operates.鈥
Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe has been disturbingly silent on the issue, but other Missouri Republicans have expressed similar reservations.
It鈥檚 nice to have them on the record as opposing such a blatant power grab. Their constituents must hold them to it.
