Power utility officials, state regulators and energy experts will gather Tuesday to discuss how to produce enough energy in Missouri to provide for a future that is increasingly electrified.
The group, meeting in Jefferson City, faces two main questions: how much energy will be needed in the future and how to supply it, particularly as aging coal plants are phased out. Coal remains the dominant energy source in Missouri.
The region鈥檚 electric grid 鈥 like elsewhere 鈥 could be transformed by rising demand in coming years, thanks to the widening adoption of electric vehicles and a potential boom of massive, energy-hungry developments, such as the data centers that power tech companies鈥 computing needs plus artificial intelligence and even the cryptocurrency 鈥渕ines鈥 that collectively guzzle as much power as entire nations.
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Put together, weaving those new activities into the electric grid could add up to one of the biggest changes in overall electricity demand since the rise of widespread air conditioning.
That has sparked fears, noted by some officials, of a looming crunch on electric capacity.
The concern is compounded by the loss of some longtime sources of power generation, including the continued retirements of coal plants. Replacing coal with alternative energy sources marks a switch that typically stands to save customers money and is consistent with calls to slash greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels that drive climate change.
Many experts say a surge in power demand is a question of when, not if.
鈥淚 do certainly, very strongly feel ... that the load is definitely going to skyrocket in the coming years,鈥 said Durgesh Manjure, the director of resource adequacy for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, the entity that oversees the power grid across much of Missouri and North America.
He added, however, that MISO 鈥渄oes not anticipate any significant difficulties鈥 meeting foreseeable demand and still expects the grid to have sufficient capacity.
Exceptions and complications, he added, mainly threaten to arise during weather-related anomalies, such as extremely hot days that come at atypical times 鈥 say, a 95-degree day in late September.
But there is uncertainty about what could take shape in places like Missouri. Some experts worry that some projections, such as the possible proliferation of data centers, could help lock in expensive and unneeded investments.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 being overestimated,鈥 said Ashok Gupta, a Kansas City-based energy economist for the Natural Resources Defense Council. 鈥淲e could end up in an overbuild situation.鈥
The state has seen commercial electricity in recent years, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The same declining or static trends applied to many other states from 2019 through 2023, while major leaps in commercial power usage were only observed in a handful of states that so far have become hubs for large computing facilities and data centers, such as Texas, North Dakota and Virginia.
And around Missouri, some projections only call for minor or modest growth in regional electricity usage. For example, the EIA predicts electricity demand to rise by about 0.5% per year over the coming decades in its latest outlook for the region.
鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 characterize that as rapidly accelerating,鈥 said Tyler Hodge, an economist with the EIA. Even if that forecast is revised upward in the agency鈥檚 next round of projections 鈥 after a year of frenzied talk about AI 鈥 he doesn鈥檛 expect the change to be dramatic.
鈥淚f anything, it will be a slightly higher growth rate in the upcoming forecast,鈥 he said.
Amid the uncertainty, decisions about how to plan for the future carry massive implications 鈥 ranging from the costs that captive utility customers will be asked to shoulder for new investments to climate impacts.
Some state officials and utilities like Ameren, at least, want to make new gas plants a point of emphasis.
鈥淎meren is in a notable capacity shortfall. ... The picture is not optimistic and is a cause for concern,鈥 said Kayla Hahn, the chair of the Missouri Public Service Commission, which regulates the state鈥檚 monopoly utilities, in a June meeting that discussed the 果酱视频-based company鈥檚 push to close its coal-fired Rush Island Energy Center.
At the meeting, Hahn took the unusual step of urging the company to build natural gas generation 鈥 and even scolded Ameren for not pursuing such projects sooner.
But some question whether Missouri鈥檚 grid should turn to new gas generation at all, especially before exhausting cheaper strategies, like maximizing energy efficiency efforts or gradually building smaller renewable and energy storage projects.
Beyond the large price tags of new gas plants, skeptics also point out that gas can have issues tied to reliability and price volatility, as seen during Winter Storm Uri in 2021, which sparked widespread outages and astronomical cost spikes. Further criticism surrounds the prospect of making new investments in a fossil fuel like gas, even if it is less carbon-intensive than coal.
Meanwhile, some note that it鈥檚 not simply a question of keeping the lights on, but also of providing energy that鈥檚 enticing enough to attract new business to the state. And many major companies 鈥 especially those with carbon-reduction goals, including data center powerhouses like Amazon, Google and Meta 鈥 are in pursuit of renewable power for a combination of environmental and economic reasons.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 what businesses want 鈥 they want clean energy,鈥 said James Owen, the executive director of Renew Missouri, a nonprofit that advocates for greater adoption of renewable energy in Missouri 鈥 which currently burns more coal than any state except Texas.
Owen asks if the state will seek ways to change its grid to support that quest for clean power 鈥 鈥渙r, say, 鈥楽orry, we鈥檙e closed for business.鈥欌
View life in 果酱视频 through the Post-Dispatch photographers' lenses. Edited by Jenna Jones.
